Financial planning for 2026: how businesses can stay in control during times of instability

Why plan at all?

Without a clear plan, it is easy to lose control and find yourself in a situation where decisions are made impulsively rather than strategically. An annual financial plan is necessary in order to:

• see the big picture, rather than living from payment to payment;
• prevent crises that seem “sudden” but in fact always accumulate;
• spend money wisely, rather than patching holes;
• understand when to invest and when to slow down;
• not panic when something goes wrong — because you know how to react.

Of course, there will be changes throughout the year. A plan is not a prediction, it is a guideline.

Let’s start with “yesterday”: the results of the previous year

Before making plans, it is worth taking an honest look at the previous year:

1. What really worked?
2. Where were there unnecessary expenses?
3. What income can be considered stable?

First of all, you need to evaluate actual results, not ideas. It is important to see which processes, products or channels regularly generated income and can be replicated. To do this, analyse:

• sales and income by product;
• average cheque and number of customers;
• conversions and repeat sales;
• actual business workload.

Everything that has shown stable results becomes the basis for the plan for the next year. 

Next, it is worth looking at expenses. Often, businesses continue to pay for services, advertising, or processes that do not bring a return. Evaluate:

• total expenses for the year and their structure;
• the ratio of expenses to income;
• the return on investment of marketing and contractors.

Not all income is equally reliable, and it is important to take this into account. Therefore, analyse:

• income by month;
• the share of regular customers;
• dependence on individual channels or products.

Tax consulting from CeDePe: we see what you didn’t notice in the reports

Analysing last year’s financial and tax results is one of the most important stages of planning. This is where mistakes that are not visible in management reports most often occur: incorrectly reported income, missed tax differences, overstated tax burden or risks of additional charges and penalties. It is difficult to understand these nuances on your own; professional knowledge of tax accounting is essential. Therefore, it is advisable to entrust the analysis of previous periods to specialists.

The main stages of cooperation:

1. Collection of relevant client data

The financial planning process begins with the collection and analysis of initial information about the company’s activities. To develop a high-quality financial planning model, the client provides data on: 

• business goals;
• production and marketing processes;
• income and expense structure;
  financial statements (balance sheet, cash flow statement, profit and loss statement). 

It is important that the company’s management provides complete and verified data in clear analytical sections, which allows for informed decisions to be made in both current management and long-term business development.

2. Data analysis, planning and forecasting by CeDePe specialists

CeDePe analyses the information received and helps to look at financial results not only from the point of view of profit, but also from the perspective of tax risks and optimisation opportunities. During consulting, we:

• assess the current financial condition of the business and audit financial documentation;
• identify key problems, risks and growth points;
• develop an individual action plan to improve financial processes, increase profitability and optimise costs;
• provide advice on financial management, investment and tax planning;
• support the implementation of solutions and monitor the execution of the financial strategy.

At all stages, we guarantee an individual approach, professionalism, efficiency and confidentiality. As a result, you get not just an analysis of past periods, but a clear understanding of what figures and what tax model are appropriate for the new planning period.

Tax changes in 2026: new rules that cannot be ignored

Changes in tax rules affect the cost of money, the structure of expenses, and even business models. Therefore, next year, take into account the following tax changes:

1. Increase in income tax for banks. In 2026, the income tax rate for banks is planned to increase to 50%. For businesses, this means a change in the conditions of access to financing: the cost of loans may increase, and requirements for borrowers may become more stringent. Therefore, sources of financing and cash flows require more careful planning.
2. Increase for sole proprietors. The increase in the minimum wage from 1 January 2026 automatically increases the unified social tax, military tax and maximum amounts of the single tax, while the income limits for groups also change. 
3. Excise duties on fuel. The planned increase in excise duty rates on petrol and diesel from the beginning of 2026 will directly affect logistics and operating costs. For companies with a transport component, this means an increase in production costs and the need to review prices.
4. Changes in reporting. For individual entrepreneurs, quarterly submission of consolidated reports on personal income tax (PIT), military tax and single social contribution (SSC) for employees is being introduced. This is done to simplify administration, reduce the number of technical operations and optimise the reporting process, allowing individual entrepreneurs to focus on the accuracy and quality of the data submitted rather than the frequency of reporting. Legal entities continue to submit consolidated reports on a monthly basis.

In 2026, taxes will become an active part of financial strategy rather than a background expense. At CeDePe, we help businesses assess how tax changes affect their specific model and advise on how to adapt taxation so that financial plans for 2026 remain realistic and manageable. 

Tax decisions require attention and a systematic approach, and the CeDePe team will help you with this — let’s start by booking a consultation.

Macroeconomic background: we don’t influence it, but we take it into account

The Ukrainian government has approved a macroeconomic forecast for 2026–2028, which is used to plan the budget and economic policy calendar.

According to the government’s baseline scenario, Ukraine’s economy could grow by approximately 4.5% in 2026, with inflation at around 8.6%. In a more cautious scenario, GDP growth is expected to be 2.4% and inflation almost 10%.

Why should businesses take these indicators into account? GDP growth is about demand. If the economy is growing faster, it is easier for companies to increase sales, launch new products, and invest in development. If growth slows down, competition for customers intensifies and financial plans become more cautious.

Inflation is about costs. 8–10% means that raw materials, services, rent, salaries, etc. will become more expensive. If these factors are not taken into account in budgets, businesses risk receiving “paper profits” that disappear in real cash flows.

Also, remember that the rules will change throughout the year: from tax adjustments to the impact on exchange rates and the availability of financing.

Expenses that are better to tame than ignore

Financial control begins where there is a structure of potential expenses. Therefore, consider the following:

1. Fixed costs that do not depend on sales volumes: rent, key salaries, accounting, IT services, mandatory subscriptions. They form the minimum level of income that a business must generate each month in order to operate without losses.
2. Variable expenses that increase or decrease along with the company’s activities: procurement, logistics, production, commissions, part of marketing. If they are not forecasted, an increase in turnover may not lead to an increase in profit.
3. Seasonal expenses that occur at certain times of the year: peak advertising campaigns, heating, preparation for the high season, temporary staff. They are recurring, but often come as a surprise to cash flow if not taken into account in advance.
4. One-off expenses: equipment upgrades, automation, new product launches, legal and tax changes.

Proper differentiation of expenses allows you to assess the financial burden in advance, avoid cash gaps, and make management decisions based on forecasts.

Reserves: a backup option for business

Reserves are like a first aid kit in a car: it’s better not to need it, but you need to have it. A reserve for 2–3 months covers short-term disruptions. 4–6 months give you time to make informed decisions. More than 6 months gives you freedom to manoeuvre. Not having a reserve means that any force majeure immediately turns into a crisis.

How to plan your finances for 2026 so that it really works

In 2026, it is not universal templates that work, but a clear understanding of your own figures, taxes and scenarios. The good news is that proper planning is not difficult if you build it systematically and seek the support of specialists.

1. Create a financial model for your business. The model should reflect your specific logic of income, expenses, and cash flows. It should include monthly income, detailed expenses, tax payments, cash flow forecasts, and several development scenarios.
2. Record taxes in advance. A tax calendar allows you to see all your obligations in advance and avoid cash flow gaps. This is a basic tool for financial discipline, which CeDePe integrates into the overall financial model of its clients when setting up accounting.
3. Return to the plan regularly. A financial plan only works when it is reviewed monthly: compare actuals with forecasts, adjust scenarios, and update cash flow.

Planning ceases to be difficult when it is backed by a clear system and expert support. Sign up for a consultation with CeDePe specialists today to start 2026 with financial confidence.